Bolsonaro Administration: short and long-term implications for the Cadastro Único

implicações de curto e longo prazo para o Cadastro Único

Abstract

We investigated the Bolsonaro administration and how the Cadastro Único was managed as the foundation of the national assistance policy. We considered political articulation between the federal and local governments may affect the allocation of resources. Through hypothesis testing for the difference between means, we measured the influence of partisanship in allocating resources from the National Fund of Social Assistance to the local ones. Municipalities with mayors of parties allied to the federal government received more resources for Assistance’s management. Municipalities in which the local elections switched the mayor from ally to opposition were punished with lower transfers. Funding for CadÚnico, inversely, is steady and balanced between allied and opposing municipalities, indicating the system is mostly insulated from party politics.