Posterior estimates sensibility of a capture-recapture model applied to vehicle fleet estimation
Keywords:
Estimates. Model. Bayesian. Fleet. Vehicles.Abstract
This paper aims to estimate the motor vehicles fleet size that frequent the parking lots of the Headquarters Campus of the Federal University of Western Bahia. The hypothesis is that the fleet size is different for each of the three periods of the institution operation. We adopted a bayesian multiple capture-recapture model and we monitored the posteriori estimates sensibility of fleet size, considering informative and non-informative priori distributions. The bayesian results were similar to the classical estimates when we adopted non-informative prioris, and revealed that the vehicle fleet size is larger in the afternoon. For cars we obtained: , and , and for motorcycles we obtained , and , in the morning, afternoon and night periods, respectively.
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